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Prediction for CME (2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-03T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27562/-1
CME Note: Large complex-shaped (possibly partial halo) to the north. Source is likely the eruption of a very long filament stretching from N42E15 to N01W60 seen in AIA 193/304/131. The filament is centered very approximately around N30W30. The eruption was likely associated with the corresponding long duration C3.2-class flare peaking at 2023-11-03T06:17Z. Arrival signature: a sharp temporary jump in total magnetic field to 44 nT at 2023-11-05T11:45Z, up from the already elevated 20 nT after CME arrival four hours prior) accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 520 km/s; ion density remains high after the previous arrival in the morning. The arrival is followed by a bout of negative Bz with values close to -20 nT. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27611/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T11:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 85.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Nov 03 1429 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A wide partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the
LASCO/C2 data starting at 05:36 UTC on Nov 3rd. The CME source was a large
filament eruption in the north-west quadrant. The automated detection by
CACTUS suggests a projected velocity of about CME 500 km/s for the bulk of
the CME. Preliminary analysis suggests a possible arrival at Earth on Nov
06th, but further analysis is ongoing. The CME is expected to cause minor
to moderate geomagnetic conditions with chances of reaching severe
geomagnetic storm levels.

Lead Time: 40.10 hour(s)
Difference: -11.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-11-03T19:39Z

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